2024 - 2025 Real Estate Outlook for GVR, FVREB, and VIREB

Demand Rebound with Balanced Markets: Across all three regions, October 2024 showed a notable increase in sales, largely driven by recent interest rate cuts from the Bank of Canada. Metro Vancouver saw a 31.9% increase in sales year-over-year, Fraser Valley recorded a 37% rise, and Vancouver Island experienced a 42% jump in sales. These regions are now in balanced market territory, with absorption rates around 15-18%. Lower borrowing costs have re-engaged buyers, creating favorable conditions across each market.

Active Listings Growth: Inventory levels have generally risen from 2023 across all regions. Vancouver Island’s active listings increased by 12%, Fraser Valley’s by 34%, and Metro Vancouver’s by 24.8%. While new listings slowed month-over-month in Fraser Valley and Vancouver Island, Metro Vancouver’s listings rose 16.9% from the previous year. This increase in inventory has kept prices from experiencing upward pressure and has supported more balanced market dynamics, with adequate choices for buyers and less competition for listings.

Price Trends and Stability: Benchmark prices have seen minor adjustments, trending downward across most property types. Metro Vancouver and Fraser Valley prices showed slight monthly declines, while Vancouver Island’s benchmark prices remained largely stable. Fraser Valley has seen seven consecutive months of price dips, though these have been modest. This trend suggests that current inventory levels are stabilizing prices, preventing significant increases or decreases.

Property Type Insights: Attached and apartment segments in Metro Vancouver are moving toward a seller’s market, with demand outpacing supply in these categories. Vancouver Island also saw strong growth in single-family homes and townhouses, indicating a broader-based demand across property types. Fraser Valley's average days to sell—34 for detached homes, 32 for condos, and 29 for townhomes—highlight consistent buyer interest and balanced selling conditions.

Short-Term Outlook (Q4 2024): With continued rate cuts anticipated, demand is likely to sustain or grow, especially as buyers seek to lock in lower mortgage rates. This could further bolster sales into the year-end, especially in regions where buyers previously waited out higher rates. Market conditions are expected to remain balanced, with sales volumes remaining steady and minor price movements as inventory levels meet increased demand. Attached and apartment segments may see some upward price pressure if demand continues to rise, particularly in Metro Vancouver.

Medium-Term Outlook (Q1-Q2 2025): If rate cuts continue and inflation remains stable, demand will likely stay strong into early 2025. However, rising inventory levels, particularly in Fraser Valley and Vancouver Island, could temper any sharp price increases, maintaining a balanced market. Price stabilization or slight upward adjustments may occur in high-demand segments, while single-family homes may experience modest price growth due to their relative stability.