Well, that was a depressing November on the weather front in Vancouver: 27 of the 30 days were rainy which tied 1953 for the most recorded rainy days in November.
The situation looked a little sunnier for those people that were lucky enough to be holding Lower Mainland real estate, as most areas saw increased prices. Even single family homes, which had taken a small hit in the last couple of months, were buoyed up by buyers who may be trying to beat the deadline for the mortgage changes that are coming in January.
November sales were well above the 10-year-average in most areas, primarily because of the rush on condos and townhouses, which saw the biggest price increases.
According to Mortgage Pros Canada (MPC), the industry lobby representing mortgage brokers, many buyers will be frozen out of the market by the new mortgage changes or have to adjust their price ranges downwards as per the following:
- 22% of buyers by less than 2.50%
- 21% of buyers by 2.50% to 4.99%
- 22% of buyers by 5.00% to 7.49%
- 35% of buyers by 7.50% or more
Approximately 50,000 potential buyers will decide to not buy because of the mortgage changes.
Here are a few tables to better show what the most recent market statistics are doing.
For example, for one bedroom units in Metro Vancouver, 58 of the 85 sales (68%) were at or above the asking price (101.7% of the asking price, on average) and were on the market for an average of 14 days in the last week of November.
Metro Vancouver Attached Property Sales in the last week of November
From the REBGV's November Stats:
For all property types, the sales-to-active listings ratio for November 2017 is 32.0 percent, which is up three percent since September 2017. By property type, the ratio is 15.9 percent for detached homes (up one percent since September 2017) , 36.4 percent for townhomes (down six percent since September 2017), and 67.8 percent for apartments (up seven percent since September 2017).
For all property types, the sales-to-active listings ratio for November 2017 is 32.0 percent, which is up three percent since September 2017. By property type, the ratio is 15.9 percent for detached homes (up one percent since September 2017) , 36.4 percent for townhomes (down six percent since September 2017), and 67.8 percent for apartments (up seven percent since September 2017).
Generally, analysts say that downward pressure on home prices occurs when the ratio dips below the 12 per cent mark for a sustained period, while home prices often experience upward pressure when it surpasses 20 per cent over several months.
Note that the previous month (October 2017), the ratios were 33.1% for all properties, 16.8% for detached homes, 44.8% for townhomes, and 66.0% for apartments.
My predictions for the last two months were quite pessimistic as I didn't anticipate the mad rush of purchasing prior to the buyers losing their buying power this coming January. This December will mostly likely follow the same trend as many lenders are requiring a "live deal" to be submitted by December 15th to still use the existing mortgage qualifications.
Included below are the latest statistics for real estate in the REBGV (Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver) and FVREB (Fraser Valley Real Estate Board) areas. You will find a clickable link to each area below which will open up as a separate PDF file.
Click on the links (in blue) below for the statistics package for your area:
(The links each take a few second to open as they are files stored on my Google Drive.)
Here are the full statistic packages for:
Greater Vancouver
The Fraser Valley (which includes Surrey, North Surrey, South Surrey/White Rock, Cloverdale, Delta, Langley, Abbotsford, Chilliwack, and Mission.)
Below is a link to a graph showing the rise in prices in the Lower Mainland just for resale properties (no new homes) over the last year. This link is live so it will update when the new statistics come in each month.
LINK to live graph
Please feel free to contact us if you would like specific information for your sub-area or if you would like a market evaluation of the value of your home.
Cheers,
Barry, Olga, and Alice
Sweat it Out
"To meet complex challenges, we need creative solutions."
This phrase has been said countless times, from the Monday morning status meeting to the executive retreat. And it's true. But why are truly creative solutions to complex problems so rare?
When we're faced with a challenge, we brainstorm ways to solve the problem. Idea generation is kind of like weight training. The first few reps are easy. Only deep in the set do we really begin to sweat. As the lactic acid builds up and we "feel the burn," our brain tells us to stop. But the brain is wily and lazy. Some of the most productive work comes after the burn. It's beyond the burn that we tell our muscles and nervous system how serious we are about getting stronger.
So it is with problem solving. The first few ideas always come easily. But the best ideas often show up beyond the obvious ones. The next time you sit down to solve a problem, tell yourself you won't quit until you've come up with 20 solutions. When you hit the point you think you can't possibly come up with a new idea, don't quit. Push. Sweat it out. Even if you think you're tapped out, commit to spending at least an additional twenty to thirty minutes "sitting" with the problem.
Not every idea you come up with will be a viable solution. Some may be laughably absurd. Some may be statistically unlikely. But with idea generation, you can't afford to censor yourself. You never know when two dumb ideas will get together and give birth to a great one.
Mediocrity persists when we settle for obvious answers. We are never in more danger of missing out on greatness than when we grab for what seems like expedient common sense. Dig deep. Sweat it out.
Scott Levitt